中国一次能源消费产出效力影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of the Output of Primary Energy Consumption in China

为缓解一次能源消费带来的一系列环境及气候变化问题,充分协调能源消费与经济发展的复杂关系,开展针对一次能源消费产出效力的影响因素研究,首先通过LMDI模型分析一次能源消费的驱动因素,结果显示经济效应和能源强度效应分别为主要的正向及负向驱动因素。而后构建STIRPAT模型分析一次能源消费产出效力的影响因素,将人口数量、能源结构、人均GDP、经济结构、固定资产投资等因素作为自变量,同时基于C-D生产函数导出技术水平因素的表达式,并将其作为自变量纳入STIRPAT模型;结果显示,人口数量、能源结构、经济结构和技术水平等因素对一次能源消费产出效力具有抑制作用,人均GDP和固定资产投资因素对一次能源消费产出效力具有促进作用,在当前形势下,降低煤炭消费占比、降低第二产业增加值占比、提升节能技术投入、控制人口数量可降低经济发展对一次能源的依赖,促进经济的低碳绿色发展。

In order to alleviate a series of environmental and climate change problems brought about by primary energy consumption and to fully coordinate the complex relationship between the energy consumption and economic development, we conducted research on the influencing factors of primary energy consumption and its output efficiency. The driving factors of primary energy consumption were analyzed through the LMDI model and the results show that economic effects and energy intensity effects are the main positive and negative drivers, respectively. Then a STIRPAT model was established to analyze the influencing factors of the primary energy output efficiency, and factors such as population size, energy structure, per capita GDP, economic structure, and fixed asset investment were taken as independent variables. Besides, the expression of the factor of technical level derived from the CD productive function was included as one of the independent variables in the STIRPAT model, too. And the results show that factors such as population size, energy structure, economic structure and technical level have an inhibitory effect on the efficiency of primary energy output. However, per capita GDP and fixed asset investment have contributed to the efficiency of primary energy output. In the current situation, reducing the proportion of coal consumption, lowering the proportion of added value of the secondary industry, increasing investment in energy-saving technologies and controlling population scale could reduce the dependence of economic development on primary energy and promote low-carbon and green development of the economy.