婚姻匹配模式与婚姻稳定性——来自中国家庭追踪调查的经验证据

Assortative Mating Pattern and Marital Stability:Evidence from Chinese Family Panel Studies

利用2010—2016年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,描述了中国婚姻匹配模式与婚姻稳定性的概况与变迁,并采用生存分析等方法探究了婚姻匹配模式对婚姻稳定性的影响及其机制。研究发现,总体上夫妻及其家庭背景特征相称的婚姻匹配模式处于主导地位,但随着时代的变迁,中国的婚配模式更加多样,异质性婚配逐渐增多,同时婚姻稳定性也有所下降。实证结果表明,夫妻在教育、年龄、户籍与所在区域等个人特征上的不同将提高离婚风险,特别是夫妻特征差异较大的情况,而夫妻家庭背景特征相称的婚配模式,即"门当户对"并不明显影响婚姻稳定性。进一步探讨影响机制发现,在相称匹配的婚姻中,夫妻价值观念更加一致是其表现出较低离婚风险的重要原因。因此,弱化城乡居民身份、合理分配城乡与区域间的公共资源、缩小个体间的社会经济不平等以及加强家风建设是保证当前与未来全社会较高程度婚姻稳定性的重要渠道。

This paper uses the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2016 to describe the general situation and changes of marriage matching pattern and marital stability in China. Meanwhile, the paper also explores the effect of marriage matching pattern on marital stability and its mechanism by using survival analysis. The study finds that the matrimonial matching on the characteristics of couples and their family background is dominant. With the changes of the times, China’s marriage matching patterns are more diverse and heterogeneous. Meanwhile, the marital stability has begun to decline. The empirical results show that the marriage pattern with disproportionate marital characteristics including personal education, age, household registration and regional characteristics, would increase the risk of divorce, especially for the disparity between marital characteristics of the couples. However, the proportionate match of the couples’ family background does not significantly affect the stability of marriage.The research results of impact mechanism show that the low disparity in values between husband and wife in proportionally matched marriages is an important reason for their low risks of divorce. Therefore, weakening the identity of urban and rural residents, rationally allocating public resources between urban and rural areas and regions, narrowing the social and economic inequality of individuals, and strengthening the family tradition construction are important channels to ensure the higher-level stability of marriage at present and in the future.