农业转移人口的超大城市偏好与家庭联合迁移决策

Megacities Preference and Joint Migration Decisions of Married Couples in Rural China

夫妻双方同时外出务工以及在超大城市集聚是农业转移人口城乡转移的重要趋势。基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,利用多元选择模型,考察了已婚农业转移人口的超大城市偏好与七类联合迁移决策,得到的主要结论有:夫妻同时外出务工是家庭迁移的主要模式,相对于妻子,丈夫外出务工的概率更高,且更加偏好超大城市流动;迁移至超大城市和其他城市用于家庭照料的时间投入和经济回报是有差异的,随着家庭孩子数量增加,夫妻迁移至两类城市的概率表现出不同的变化趋势,其中丈夫迁移至超大城市、丈夫迁移至其他城市、妻子迁移至其他城市的概率均呈现先下降后上升的"U"型特征;和老一代农业转移人口相比,在家庭孩子数量相同的情况下,新生代农业转移人口家庭夫妻双方外出务工的概率均更高,且丈夫迁移至超大城市的比例更大。

Both husband and wife moving out for work together and gathering in megacities are important trends of migrants’ rural-urban migration. Based on the 2014 national mobile population dynamic monitoring survey data, this paper uses a multiple selection model to investigate the megacities preference and seven kinds of joint migration decision of the married migrants. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The husband and wife moving out for work together and is the main mode of rural-urban migration. The migration probability of husband is higher than wife, meanwhile, both husband and wife are more preferring megacities flows. 2) The time input and economic return are different between the megacities and other cities for family care. With the increase number of children in family, the probability of husband and wife migration to the two types of cities shows a different trend, in which the probability of the migration to both type cities of husband and the migration to other cities of wife all present as “U” type. 3) Comparing with the migration of old generation, the migration probabilities of both new generation spouses are higher than old-generation in the case of the same number of children in the family;Meanwhile, the migration ratio to the megacities of husband is greater.