基于AHP-FCM的热电联产投资风险评估

Investment Risk Assessment of Co-generation Based on AHP-FCM

热电联产集中供热是一种公认的节能环保技术,近年来,该技术得到迅速发展,其也是未来发展的主要方向。构建了包括自然风险、社会风险、政治风险、经济风险、技术风险、其他风险这6个指标的一级指标体系,并形成了包括18个指标的二级指标体系。采用层次分析法计算评价的权重集,结合模糊综合评价模型对投资风险进行评估。实例表明,所建立的指标体系与AHP-FCM模型可操作性强、效果较好。

Central heating of co-generation is a kind of recognized energy saving and environmental protection technology. In recent years, this technology has been developed rapidly, and it is also the main direction of future development. A primary index system including 6 indicators, that is, natural risk, social risk, political risk, economic risk, technical risk and other risks, is constructed, and the two level index system including 18 indicators is established. The analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight of the evaluation, and combining with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the investment risk is evaluated. Examples show that the established index system and the AHP-FCM model can be operated and have a good effect.