石油地缘供需格局新态势对原油价格的影响研判

The Influence of New Geopolitical Supply Demand on Oil Price

自北美页岩油气革命成功以来,全球石油地缘供需格局出现重大变化。美国实现了石油独立,亚太地区石油安全形势严峻,中东地区石油经济依赖依旧。在供给侧形成了美国、沙特、俄罗斯“三巨头”,正逐步取代欧佩克的市场作用。石油地缘供需格局的变化也影响了地缘政治,产油国地区的地缘政治风险有增无减。新格局下,石油作为地缘政治工具仍将左右地缘政治事件,在供给安全上形成风险;页岩油开发、美国石油出口、沙特产量调节、船燃新规与地缘政治均成为2019 年油价波动的核心影响因素。

Since the success of North America shale oil and gas revolution, global oil geopolitical supplydemand pattern has changed significantly, The US has realized oil independence, but oil security situation in the Asian-Pacific region is still severe, with its dependence on Middle East oil remaining as before. In the supply side, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia have formed "Big Three", gradually replacing the market role of OPEC. The change of oil geopolitical supply-demand pattern also affects geopolitics, and geopolitical risks in the regions of oil producing countries are ever-increasing. Under the new pattern, as the tool of geopolitics, oil will still master geopolitical events, posing risks to security of oil supply. Shale oil boom, US oil export, Saudi Arabia's production adjustment, new marine fuel rules and geopolitics, all of these will become core influencing factors of oil price fluctuations in 2019.