国内外合成橡胶市场现状及发展前景探析

The Analysis and Prospect of Domestic and Foreign Synthetic Rubber Market

2018 年是化工产品的景气周期年,但合成橡胶整体表现疲弱,在大景气周期中走出低迷行情。受汽车需求增速放缓、出口环境恶化等因素影响,2018 年我国合成橡胶供需走弱,两大通用合成胶种顺丁橡胶和丁苯橡胶均呈现明显颓势,加之原料丁二烯及替代品天然橡胶的双重挤压,行业利润空间缩窄。2019 年尽管存在贸易摩擦等不利因素,但汽车优惠政策退出的影响较上年减弱,加之国家出台的相关政策发挥作用,预计2019 年我国合成橡胶消费增速将由负转正。

2018 was a boom cycle year of chemical products, but the entire market performance of synthetic rubber was weak, showing a downturn in the boom cycle. By the influence of slowing down automobile demand growth rate, aggravating export environment and other factors, the supply and demand of China's synthetic rubber weakened in 2018, with the two general-purpose synthetic rubber products of BR and SBR both in decline, and industrial profit margin shrank, squeezed both by butadiene feedstock and substitutive natural rubber. In 2019, although there exist trade friction and other unfavorable factors, the influence of automobile preferential policy exit will ease down from last year, and the government relevant policies in place will produce effect, therefore it is expected that China’s synthetic rubber consumption growth rate will turn from negative to positive.