卢比汇率变动对巴基斯坦进出口贸易影响——基于向量自回归模型

Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Import and Export Trade of Pakistan——Based on Vector Autoregressive Model

近些年来巴基斯坦对外贸易呈现增长态势,但贸易逆差问题也日益凸显。因此,找到巴基斯坦贸易逆差扩大的原因和影响因素,并据此来寻找解决办法,对巴基斯坦的经济增长和稳定有着重要的现实意义。本文通过对巴基斯坦贸易现状的分析,发现巴基斯坦由于国内产业结构不合理,进出口都存在一定问题,进口总额较大且在逐年快速增加,而出口总额较小且增长缓慢,从而导致贸易差额越来越大。在此基础上,利用向量自回归模型及其相关检验估计了巴基斯坦2000—2016年的贸易弹性。研究结果表明,进出口贸易需求关于汇率弹性都是缺乏弹性的,而进口的国内收入弹性大于1。因此,仅靠卢比汇率的贬值很难缩小贸易逆差。

In recent years, Pakistan’s foreign trade has shown a growth trend, but the trade deficit problem has also become increasingly prominent. Therefore, finding the reasons and influencing factors for the expansion of Pakistan’s trade deficit and finding solutions based on it have important practical significance for Pakistan’s economic growth and stability. Through the analysis of the status quo of Pakistan’s trade, this paper finds that Pakistan has certain problems in import and export due to unreasonable domestic industrial structure. Imports are large and increase rapidly year by year, while exports are small and slow to grow,as a result, the trade balance is getting bigger and bigger.On this basis, the vector autoregressive model and its related tests are used to estimate the trade elasticity of Pakistan from 2000 to 2016. The research results show that the import and export trade demand is inelastic about the exchange rate elasticity,the domestic income elasticity of imports is greater than one.Therefore, it is difficult to narrow the trade deficit only by the depreciation of the rupee exchange rate.