为何当前的宽货币不能带来宽信用?——论商业银行风险偏好在政策传导中的作用

Why Does not Monetary Easing Bring Credit Expansion?

我们在实践中观察到货币政策宽松不一定带来信用扩张,即所谓的宽货币和宽信用之间存在差异,而决定这种差异的主要变量是商业银行的风险偏好。中国的金融体系是以商业银行为主导的金融体系,其支持实体经济的效率高低与金融机构的风险偏好直接相关。本文研究认为,商业银行的风险偏好与金融监管政策和房地产价格(主要抵押品)联系最为紧密。本轮货币政策逐步从有所放松到信用增速持续下滑,显示出当前严监管的趋势并未改变,房地产市场整体处于下行趋势,因此商业银行在资产、负债和权益端都面临较大压力。宽货币向宽信用的传导渠道并不通畅,信用机制修复则仍需时日。

Loose money does not necessarily lead to credit expansion in practice;that is, there is a difference between the so-called broad currency and credit expansion. And the main factor that determines this difference is the risk preference of commercial banks. China’s financial system is dominated by commercial banks, and the efficiency of its support for the real economy is directly related to the risk appetite of financial institutions. Our research shows that commercial banks’risk appetite is most closely linked to financial regulatory policies and the real estate prices (main collateral). Given this round of monetary policy liberalization and slowing credit growth, the trend of strict regulation is yet to change and the real estate market as a whole is in a downward channel. Therefore, commercial banks are under great pressure regarding assets, liabilities and equity. The channel of transmission from loose currency to credit expansion is not smooth and it will take time for the credit mechanism to be repaired.