央行的言辞沟通、实际行动与企业投资行为

Central Bank's Communication, Monetary Policy Action and Corporate Investment Behavior

本文构建了中国人民银行的言辞沟通指数和行动指数,并利用上市公司数据研究了言辞沟通和实际行动对企业投资的影响。结果发现,在样本期内,言辞沟通和实际行动均显著影响企业投资。进一步分段回归后发现实际行动的影响有减弱迹象,但言辞沟通的影响则随央行重视程度的提升有明显改善。增加沟通频数未必能改善沟通效果,这在宽松的言辞沟通中尤为明显。言行一致时,言辞沟通显著影响企业投资,而且言与行的偏离越小,沟通越有效;言行不一致时,言辞沟通的有效性明显下降。可见,言行一致有利于言辞沟通作用的发挥。宽松和紧缩的言辞沟通对企业投资的影响存在非对称性。民营企业对紧缩性言辞沟通十分敏感,国有企业只对强紧缩性沟通有反应;宽松性言辞沟通主要推动国有企业增加投资,对民营企业则没有显著影响。央行应尽快确立定期沟通制度,注重言行一致,以更好实现预期管理的目标;同时,应理性认识到经济收缩期预期管理政策在调动民营企业投资积极性上的局限性,积极寻求其他政策的搭配使用。

This paper constructs the words communication index and action index of the People’s Bank of China(PBC), and uses the Chinese listed companies’ database to study the impact of these two expectation management tools on corporate investment behavior. The results show as follows. Throughout the sample period, both actions and communication significantly affected corporate investment. Further regression by time period shows that the impact of actual actions was weakened, and the impact of words communication improved significantly when the PBC pays more attention to communication. Increasing the frequency of communication does not necessarily lead to better communication results, too much word communication biased towards easing may even have the opposite effects. In the case of“consistency”, the effect of word communication is significantly better, moreover, the smaller the deviation between words and actions(the higher the consistency), the more effective communication is. It means that consistent words and deeds are conducive to the role of communication. Communication in different direction have asymmetric impact on corporate investment. The strong tightening communication has similar effects between SOEs and non-SOEs, while the weak tightening communication only have significantly impact on non-SOEs. Communication in loose direction mainly increase the SOEs’ investment, and has no significant impact on non-SOEs. The central bank should establish a system of regular communication as soon as possible, paying enough attention to the credibility and consistency of central bank. At the same time, we should recognize the limitations of the expectation management policies during the economic contraction period, and seek the coordinated use of other stimulus policies.