长期人力资本积累的历史根源:制度差异、儒家文化传播与国家能力塑造

The Historical Roots of Long-term Human Capital Accumulation: Institutional Differences, Confucian Culture Communication and State Capacity Building

理解国家能力对人力资本积累的长期影响至关重要,但由于数据限制与识别困难等原因,确认二者间的因果推断则变得格外困难。但中国历史上曾存在的土司制度却作为天然的自然实验,为本文探究制度差异下中央王朝对地方所展现出的不同国家能力及其长期影响提供了便利条件。由于中原王朝势力在西南边陲难以企及,则默许地方首领对当地实施有别于郡县制外的土司制度,因此四川历史中曾长期存在土司制与郡县制并存的现象,而本文则利用独特的四川省181个县级历史数据集估计了这种不同制度下国家能力差异对人力资本积累的长期影响。结果发现,土司制下的地方治理模式显著阻碍了长期人力资本积累,并随割据状态延续时间的增长,这种抑制效应具有边际递增倾向。本文认为,这种长期人力资本培养的欠缺主要来自两个方面:其一,郡县制中儒家文化传承的代际优势对人力资本积累具有丰富的解释力度;其二,政府能力的塑造也是解释人力资本在历史发展中分流的重要影响机制。

Among the many factors that determine social and economic development and human progress, the important role played by state capacity cannot be ignored. The long-term influences of state capacity on regional economic development, public goods provision, and government credibility have attracted research attention. In general, the effects of state capacity on long-term regional development are mainly exerted through four mechanisms: regional stability and prosperity, cultural concept shaping, formal institutional norms, and official selection and elite training. However, little is known about the long-term impact of state capacity on human capital accumulation. Exploring this issue is significant because of the central role that human capital plays in the progress of modern civilization and social development. However, any efforts to understand the long-term impact of state capacity on human capital faces two types of difficulties. First, it requires long-term data, and unfortunately there is a lack of historical data. Second, in empirical analysis, it is difficult to identify the strength of state capacity, given that state capacity within a country is essentially uniform and transnational research cannot guarantee the similarity of other control conditions. However, the Tusi System (TS) that historically existed in China provides us the chance to potentially identify the long-term effect of state capacity differences on human capital accumulation. The eastern region of Sichuan has been directly controlled by the central government since ancient times. Due to the weak control of the Central Plains dynasties, however, the western region of Sichuan was historically controlled by the TS. For the purpose of our research, this historical fact offers a way to observe the long-term effect of state capacity. We use a manual database of 181 counties in Sichuan to examine the long-term impact of state capacity on human capital. We find that the TS significantly hinders long-term human capital accumulation, and the effect gradually strengthens as the decentralization time increases. The causal inference is still established after investigating omitted variable bias, using the instrumental variable method, and conducting a series of robustness tests. We also analyze the mechanisms of this long-term effect and find that the inheritance of confucian culture and government capacity play an important role in the accumulation of human capital. The above conclusions can help guide the implementation of contemporary policies. In particular, strong state capacity and government construction can be effective in cultivating long-term human capital, thus creating an institutional advantage in terms of educational development. This advantage is reflected not only in the long-term influence of confucian culture and spiritual internalization, but also in the cultivation and construction of government capacity. Therefore, promoting state capacity improvement, enhancing government prestige, and improving government service quality are critical for the development of education and long-term economic growth in China. In addition to promoting the overall progress of economic and educational development, it is important to strengthen the coordination and balance of inter-regional growth, optimize the allocation of educational resources, and create a good environment for personnel training, thus gradually forming a new pattern of human capital cultivation. The main contributions of this paper are as follows. First, studies on state capacity and human capital-both of which play important roles in societal development and long-term economic growth-are of great value, and this paper fills a research void by examining the long-term impact of state capacity on human capital accumulation. Second, based on an historical perspective, this paper examines the long-term mechanism of human capital-influencing factors. Few previous studies have adopted historical perspectives to examine factors that contribute to the cultivation of human capital. Third, the paper is a useful supplement to the literature on Chinese Tusi. The findings provide a new perspective on Tusi and suggest some avenues for further research.