中国天然气消费重心迁移路径与驱动因素分解

Migration Path of Gravity Centers of Natural Gas Consumption and Drivers Decomposition in China

探求天然气消费重心迁移路径,把握区域贡献度以及天然气消费增长的驱动因素,对推动中国区域天然气协调发展,促进天然气消费具有重要意义。本文以2005—2016年各省区市的天然气消费数据为基础,运用重心模型测算中国天然气消费重心,并分析重心迁移特征;基于Shapley值分解的基本模型,推演出区域对天然气消费重心迁移的贡献度模型和天然气消费增量分解模型,对中国七大区域进行实际分析。结果表明:2005—2011年、2011—2016年中国天然气消费重心分别向东南、东北方向迁移;第一阶段的主要推动力是华东、华南地区天然气消费比例增加显著,第二阶段则是华北、华东天然气消费比例增加;近期来看,基础设施效应和人均财富效应分别是各地区天然气消费增加的第一、第二位驱动因素,经济需求效应对不同地区呈现不同的拉动或抑制作用。

It is of great significance to research and grasp regional contributions and the incremental drivers to promote the coordinated development of regional natural gas energy and increase the proportion of natural gas consumption in China. Based on the gas consumption data of each province from 2005 to 2016, the gravity center model is used to measure the gravity center of China’s natural gas consumption, and the characteristics of the migration of gravity centers is analyzed. Based on the basic model of Shapley value decomposition, the contribution model of the migration of natural gas consumption gravity centers and the incremental decomposition model of natural gas consumption are presented, and the actual analysis of seven regions in China is carried out. The results show that the gravity center of China’s natural gas consumption in 2005~2011 and 2011~2016 are moving to the Southeast and Northeast respectively. The main driving force of the ?rst stage is the signi?cant increase in the proportion of natural gas consumption in East China and South China, and that of the second stage is the increase in the proportion of natural gas consumption in North China and East China. In the near future, the infrastructure effect and the per capita wealth effect are the ?rst and second drivers of the increase in natural gas consumption in each region, respectively. The economic demand effect has different pull or inhibition effects in different regions.