中国经济与人口重心的时空演变及产业分解研究

A Dynamic Evolvement Procedure of China's Economic and Population Gravity Centres and Three Industrial Decomposition

区域协调发展成为我国发展理念的重要组成部分,经济重心和人口重心则是衡量地区发展状态的代表性指标,良好的区域发展状态应表现为二者在空间上的重合,而重心的时空演变过程也反映出地区经济发展的变化过程。为探究我国区域发展过程中经济与人口发展的协同程度,本文从重心法出发,计算并分析了1993年以来我国的经济重心和人口重心及其演变趋势与特征。随后,采用灰色关联分析方法测算了三次产业重心与经济和人口重心的关联度,以分析三次产业对我国经济和人口重心迁移的影响情况。结果表明,1993年以来我国的经济重心一直在人口重心的东北方向,2013年以来,经济重心和人口重心均快速向西南方向迁移,经济重心的迁移速度大于人口重心;二者的距离由1993年的179.2千米缩小至2016年的173.6千米,说明我国经济发展的总体状态渐趋协调。三次产业中,第一产业重心与经济和人口重心的经度关联度均最高,而二三产业则是造成我国南北经济发展差距的主要原因,第三产业成为造成我国南北人口迁移的主导因素。

Regional coordination is a crucial component of China s development concept.Economic and population gravity centres are commonly regarded as the represented indicators measuring the development status of a region,the evolution of which can also reflect the regional developing process.Regions with good momentum generally owns the two gravity centres overlapped.To evaluate the coordination between economic and population development in the process of regional development in China,this paper explores the economic and population gravity centres since 1993 using the gravity method.The evolution trend and characteristics of the centres are also analysed at the same time.Afterwards,the grey correlation analysis method is conducted to measure correlation degree between the three industries’centre of gravity and the economic and population centre of gravity,by which the impact of the three industries on the migration of China’s economic and population centre of gravity can be recognized.The results show that China’s economic gravity centre has been in the northeast of the population centre since 1993.Both centres moved rapidly to the southwest since 2013,so that the distance of which has been shortened from 179.2 kilometres to 173.6 kilometres,indicating that the overall state of China s economic development is being gradually coordinated.Among the three industrials,the first industrial gravity centre has the highest degree of longitude correlation with both of economic and population gravity centre,while the second and the third industrial are the factors that lead to the disparity between southern and northern China.Meanwhile,the third industrial is the leading factor to the population migration from north to south in China.