人口老龄化对中国制造业转型影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Aging Population on China's Manufacturing Transformation

本文以中国31个省份2001～2017年的面板数据为样本,在理论分析老龄化影响制造业转型的基础上,使用固定效应模型和中介效应对二者关系进行了实证检验。结果表明:人口老龄化可对制造业的转型升级产生显著正向影响,影响机制为通过增加老年人医疗消费、提升劳动力人力资本积累促进制造业转型,但人口老龄化使得劳动力数量减少,并加剧了政府的养老负担,阻碍了制造业转型。此外,劳动力供给、城市化率对制造业转型产生显著正向影响,市场化程度对制造业转型产生显著负向影响,外商直接投资对制造业转型的影响不显著。最后针对本文结论提出了相关的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2017,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism of aging on the transformation of manufacturing industry in China.Furthermore,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the two based on the fixed effect model and the mediating effect.The results are as follows:firstly,the fixed effect results show that the aging of population can have a significant positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.The empirical results of intermediary effect show that the aging of population can promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry by increasing the medical consumption of the elderly and increasing the accumulation of labor human capital.Meanwhile,the aging of the population has reduced the number of labor force,aggravated the burden of the government,and hindered the transformation of manufacturing industry.Thirdly,labor supply and urbanization rate have a significant positive impact on the transformation of manufacturing industry.Marketization degree has a significant negative impact on the transformation of manufacturing industry.Foreign direct investment has no significant impact on the transformation of manufacturing industry.At the end of this paper some advisable suggestions for this articles research result are offered.