人力资本对城镇化进程的非线性影响——基于房价的面板门槛效应分析

The Nonlinear Effect of Human Capital on Urbanization——Analysis of panel threshold effect based on house price

本文采用我国2001-2016年30个省份的数据,建立面板门槛效应模型,以房价作为门槛变量,分析了人力资本对城镇化进程的影响。全样本数据结果显示,随着房价的上升,人力资本对城镇化的边际效率显著且递增,高房价没有阻碍人力资本的省际迁移,反而成为促进人力资本迁移的重要因素。分地区样本数据结果显示,房价对人力资本和城镇化影响的调节效果,在东部地区呈显著的"U"型特征,在中部地区呈"L"型特征,在西部地区呈反"L"型特征。

Based on the data of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2016,this paper establishes a panel threshold effect model and takes house price as threshold variable to analyze the impact of human capital on the urbanization process. The results of the whole sample data show that with the rise of housing prices,human capital has a significant effect on increasing marginal efficiency of urbanization,that is,high housing prices do not hinder the Inter-provincial Migration of human capital,but become an important factor to promote the migration of human capital. The results of regional sample data show that the moderating effect of housing prices on human capital and urbanization is ‘U’ shaped in the eastern region,‘L’ shaped in the central region and the other side of ‘L’ shaped in the western region.