基于专家评分和蒙特卡罗模拟的车辆装备零部件重要度评价方法

Importance of Vehicle Equipment Spare Parts:An Evaluation Method Based on Expert Scoring and Monte Carlo Simulation

针对在车辆装备预防性维修决策过程中缺少定量评价零部件重要度方法的问题,构建了车辆装备零部件重要度评价体系。在专家评分的基础上,利用层次分析法确定了各个评价项目的权重,并利用蒙特卡罗模拟降低由人工确定权重数值的误差对零件重要度造成影响。最后,以某型车辆装备行车制动系统为例,计算制动系统内各零部件重要度。通过和经验结论进行对比,验证了该方法的有效性。

In view of the lack of quantitative evaluation concerning the importance of the spare parts in the decision-making process of the preventive maintenance of vehicle equipment, we constructed an evaluation system of the importance of the vehicle equipment spare parts. On the basis of expert scoring, we determined the weight of each entry by AHP, and used the Monte Carlo simulation to reduce the impact of the error from the manual determination of the weight value on the importance of spare parts. Finally, taking the service brake system equipped by a certain vehicle model for instance, we calculated the importance of each spare part in the brake system and verified the effectiveness of the method by comparing its conclusions with empirical observations.