社会养老保险对居民消费影响的收入门槛效应研究

The Income Threshold Effects for Impact of the Social Pension Scheme on Household Consumption

社会养老保险促进还是抑制居民消费,当前文献对这一问题的研究并没有取得共识。无论是现收现付制还是基金制,社会养老保险对居民消费的影响都不是单一方向,它既可通过降低养老收入的不确定性提高消费,也可能影响预算约束从而挤出消费。本文分析了现收现付制和基金制社会养老保险的运行机制及其对居民消费的影响机制,在此基础上探讨了我国统账结合的城镇企业职工基本养老保险对居民消费的影响机制。以我国31个省份2001-2017年的面板数据为样本进行检验。结果表明,城镇企业职工基本养老保险对居民消费的影响存在收入门槛效应。城镇企业职工基本养老保险的覆盖率和替代率对居民消费的影响都存在非线性特征,在收入较低时抑制消费,超过某一收入门槛后促进消费。

Whether the Social Pension Scheme improves or reduces household consumption, there has no consensus in the related literature. The impact of the Social Pension Scheme on household consumption, whether pay-as-you-go scheme or funding scheme, is not in single one direction. It may increase household consumption by reducing the uncertainty of pension income or squeeze out household consumption through affecting budget constraints. This paper analyzes the operating mechanism of pay-as-you-go scheme and funding scheme, and the influnencing mechanism on household consumption. Then discusses the influence mechanism of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises,which combined with Social integration and personal accounts,on household consumption. Taking the panel data from 2001 to 2017 of our 31 provinces as a sample, Our study finds that the impact of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises on household consumption shows a distinct income threshold characteristic, both the coverage and substitution rate of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises have nonlinear influence on the household consumption. When the income is lower, the household consumption is suppressed by the coverage and substitution rate, but is promoted after a certain income threshold.