巴基斯坦核能力及其决策模式分析

Analysis of Pakistan's Nuclear Capability and Its Decision-making Model

巴基斯坦从1998年进行核试验以来,便成为世界上少数几个突破国际防核武器扩散体系,事实上掌握核武器的国家之一。由于巴基斯坦国内核武器研发历程较为隐秘,巴基斯坦的核武器能力和核战略决策模式长期笼罩着一层神秘的面纱。作为中国最为重要的邻国,理解巴基斯坦的核能力与核战略决策模式,有助于推动中巴两国战略沟通和对话。通过现有的公开资料进行分析,可以大体上厘清巴基斯坦的核武器能力、核武装部队构成、核指挥架构以及核战略决策模式。首先,巴基斯坦的核打击力量被称之为巴基斯坦战略部队,主要由陆军的21、22师和空军的第3防卫师、第4防卫师构成。其次,巴基斯坦战略部队是实行部署和控制核武器的主要军事力量,接受陆军战略部队司令部、海军战略部队司令部和空军战略部队战略司令部的领导。第三,三军战略指挥部主要接受国家核指挥局下辖的战略计划部的指导,国家核指挥局的最高决策最终由总统、总理和军方的部分领导在内的六位领导人集体做出决策。最后,巴基斯坦核战略决策模式主要由国家核指挥局下达,并最终由战略计划部传达到三军战略指挥部负责组织实施。理解巴基斯坦的核能力和核决策模式,有助于加深中巴两国在安全领域的协调与合作。

Since its nuclear test in 1998, Pakistan has been one of the few countries in the world to break through the international non-proliferation regime and actually acquire nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability and strategic decision-making model have been shrouded in mystery for a long time due to the relatively secret course of nuclear weapons development in Pakistan. As China’s most important neighbor, it is conducive to promoting strategic communication and dialogue between China and Pakistan by understanding Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and strategic decision-making model. Based on the analysis of the available public information, the author roughly clarifies Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability, composition of nuclear armed forces, nuclear command structure and nuclear strategic decision-making mode. First, Pakistan’s nuclear strike force, known as the Pakistan strategic forces, consists mainly of the army’s 21 and 22 divisions and the air force’s 3 and 4 defense divisions. Secondly, the Pakistan strategic forces is the main military force for the deployment and control of nuclear weapons, under the leadership of the army strategic forces command, the navy strategic forces command and the air force strategic forces command. Thirdly, the strategic command of the three armed forces is mainly under the guidance of the strategic planning department under the national nuclear command bureau. The top decision-making of the national nuclear command bureau is finally made by the six leaders including the President, the prime minister and some leaders of the military. Finally, Pakistan’s nuclear strategic decision-making mode is mainly issued by the national nuclear command bureau, and finally conveyed by the strategic planning department to the inter-services strategic command for the organization and implementation. Understanding Pakistan’s nuclear capability and decision-making model will help to deepen the coordination and cooperation between China and Pakistan in the security field.