基于时间价值的中国高速轨道交通发展时机研究

Research on the Development Opportunity for High-speed Rail Transit based on Time Value and Technology Demand

交通运输本质上是派生性需求。本文从高速铁路客运的核心问题"时间价值"入手,将日本、法国历史数据与中国情况进行对比,以"居民人均收入"与"需求量"为重要经济指标,依据相关数据创建了速度-收入模型,计算出自2009年后的时间价值对旅行速度的需求范围,进而推出对高速轮轨铁路和高速磁悬浮铁路产生需求的时间价值。认为既有"高铁战略"的推出较好地契合了经济社会发展构建"高效率、高质量、全维度、低成本"交流体系的内在需求,带来了交通运输时空网络的变化,但高速磁悬浮交通的大规模建设为时尚早。

Transportation is inherently a derivative demand.This paper,starting with "time value",the core of high-speed railway passenger transport,compares the historical data of Japan and France with that of China,and then takes the annual income per capita and demand as important economic indicators and establishes the speed-revenue model to calculate the demand range of travel speed against the time value in China after 2009,and then deduces the time value range of demand for high-speed wheel-rail railway and high-speed maglev railway.It is suggested that the introduction of high-speed railway strategy fits the internal demand of economic and social development for constructing a communication system of"high efficiency,high quality,all dimensions and low cost",but a large scale construction of high speed maglev is still too early.