独立平行进近模式的双跑道碰撞风险分析

An Analysis of Collision Risk of Dual Runways Under Independent Parallel Approach Mode

跑道间距对独立平行进近时的飞行安全有较大影响,研究独立平行进近时碰撞风险随跑道间距变化的规律可以评估在不同跑道间距下实施该运行模式的飞行安全。针对现有方法在碰撞风险计算中存在的不足,提出基于碰撞盒理论的二维位置误差模型,对飞机进近阶段的位置误差进行二维正态拟合,得出用于计算碰撞风险的二维位置分布的概率密度函数,构建了碰撞风险与跑道间距的关系曲线。为了验证该方法的合理性,分别运用一维位置误差模型、CRM模型、二维位置误差模型对跑道间距1 035 m时的碰撞风险进行了对比计算。结果显示,二维位置误差模型计算所得的碰撞风险更加接近国际民航组织制定的安全目标水平。

Flight safety during independent parallel approach is greatly affected by runway spacing.As collision risk changes with runway spacing in the independent parallel approach,rules of collision risk are studied to evaluate flight safety with different runway spacing.To improve current calculating methods for collision risk,a two dimensional position error model is proposed based on collision box theory.The position error of an aircraft during its approaching is fitted by normal distribution.Thus,a probability density function of the two dimensional distribution for calculating the collision risk is obtained,and a relationship between the collision risk and the runway spacing is analyzed.In order to verify the method,a comparison of collision risk respectively calculated by one dimensional position error model,CRM model,the two dimensional position error model is made when the runway spacing is 1 035 m.The results show that the collision risk calculated by the two dimensional position error model is closer to the safety level which is set by International Civil Aviation Organization.