经济下行时期货币政策的选择

The Choice of Monetary Policy During an Economic Downturn

通过分析货币政策维持宽松的结果表明,松货币不仅对实体经济刺激作用十分有限,而且不利于实体经济和金融去杠杆,还可能导致人民币汇率波动和资本流出压力加大,房地产泡沫也可能加剧。当前央行的货币供应面临的主要矛盾是结构性问题:一是金融系统内部货币供应的结构性问题;二是实体经济内部货币供应的结构性问题。未来货币政策应转向"加息+降准+压降信用利差"政策组合。

This paper analyzes the consequences of monetary policy easing.The results show that monetary policy easing not only has a very limited stimulus to the real economy,but also is not conducive to the real economy and financial de-leveraging.It may also fluctuate the RMB exchange rate and increase the capital outflow pressure.The bubble of real estate may also increase.The main contradiction of the current central bank’s money supply is structural problems.One structural problem of the money supply is in the financial system,and the other structural problem of the money supply is in the real economy.Future monetary policy should shift to the policy mix of increasing interest rates,reducing the deposit reserve ratio and the credit spreads.