基于互联网大数据的实时房屋租赁价格指数编制研究——以济南、青岛为例

Research on Real-time Housing Rental Price Index Compilation Based on Internet Big Data: A Case Study of Jinan and Qingdao

为实时反映房屋租赁价格的动态演化特征,从房屋租赁价格形成的影响因素及其传导机制入手,借鉴最佳指数编制理论的思想,运用网络爬虫技术自动化采集与解析开源互联网房屋租赁挂牌交易大数据,筛选出适用于开源数据模式的最佳组合指数编制方法:Hedonic-Fisher链式指数模型,并利用济南、青岛两市2017年12月至2018年3月房屋租赁交易经验数据,实证分析了该方法的有效性且进行了指数质量检验。研究表明:该实时房屋租赁价格指数能够揭示房产属性变量与房屋租赁价格之间的异质关系,相比于双加权平均法和中位数价格法具有较好的计算质量;与传统的月度房地产价格指数不同的是该指数具有较强的实时性,领先70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格指数约35~45天,能够先行准确地反映租赁价格总水平的变动;指数的实时性从可视化的角度检验了宏观经济政策的微观效度:经验数据检验前期,济青两地房屋租赁价格水平较为稳定,随着2018年初“租购并举”住房制度的提出,经验数据检验后期,济青两市受政策影响房屋租赁价格上涨明显,所以实时房屋租赁价格呈现出先平稳后适度上涨的走势。

In order to reflect the dynamic evolution characteristics of housing rental price in real time, this paper, by starting with the influencing factors of housing rental price formation and its transmission mechanism, drawing on the idea of the best index compilation theory and adopting the network crawler technology to automatically collect and analyze the big data of open source Internet housing rental listing transactions, selects the best compilation method for the open source data model, i.e., the Hedonic-Fisher chain index model, and empirically analyzes the validity of this method and conducts an index quality test by adopting the empirical data of housing leasing transactions in Jinan and Qingdao from December 2017 to March 2018. The results show that the real-time housing rental price index can reveal the heterogeneous relationship between housing property variables and rental prices and has better calculation quality than the double-weighted average method and the median price method;unlike the traditional monthly real estate price index, this index has a strong real-time performance and leads the sales price index of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium -sized cities by about 35 - 45 days, accurately reflecting the changes of the total rental price level in advance;and that the real-time nature of the index examines the micro-validity of the macroeconomic policy from the visual point of view: the rental price level in both Jinan and Qingdao is relatively stable in the early period of the empirical data test while in the later period of the empirical data test and with the " rent-purchase" housing system introduced in early 2018, the rental price in both Jinan and Qingdao has increased significantly affected by the policy. Therefore, real - time housing rental prices present a trend of a moderate rise after stabilization.