湖北碳排放权市场有效性的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Market

自二氧化碳排放权市场出现后,中国已建立了多家碳排放权试点市场。湖北省碳排放权试点不但在二氧化碳排放权成交量、资金流动性等关键性指标优于其他试点市场,而且其经济结构和工业化程度也接近于目前中国平均水平。通过对湖北省碳排放权试点市场1123个交易日数据所组成的收益率序列的GARCH模型进行分析并建立MCMC-SV模型对结果进行验证。研究发现,该试点收益率序列表现出波动积聚性,不满足弱式市场的前提,应该提高参与企业积极性,完善交易机制,促进与成熟碳排放权市场的交流学习。

Since the emergence of the carbon dioxide emission rights market,a number of carbon emission rights pilot markets was established in China.The pilot project of carbon emission rights in Hubei Province is not only superior to other pilot markets in terms of key indicators such as carbon dioxide turnover and liquidity,but its economic structure and industrialization are also close to the current Chinese average.The GARCH model of the yield series consisting of 1123 trading days of the carbon emission right pilot market in Hubei Province was analyzed and the MCMC-SV model was established to verify the results.The study found that the pilot yield series showed volatility accumulation and did not meet the premise of weak market.It should improve the enthusiasm of participating enterprises,improve the trading mechanism,and promote exchanges and learning with mature carbon emission rights market.