试论日美同盟的新进展与新挑战——日本防务政策的视角

Japan-US Alliance: From Perspective of Japanese Defense Policy

2018年底美日相继发表强化同盟的报告,美国《阿米蒂奇报告》强调日美同盟在全球领域进行双边与多边合作,《防卫计划大纲》则通过"多次元防务力"概念和新的装备计划进一步加强与同盟的联系。同盟强化首先体现在强调同盟的全球化属性,增加同盟在全球安全各领域的共识与共同利益。其次在地区层面上加强美国盟友之间的防务关系,推动网络化以巩固同盟介入地区安全的威慑力。在双边层面上则通过政策磋商和防务合作等制度化进展增强同盟的实效性。同盟强化进程中日本体现出更多的主动性并成为同盟强化的积极推动者,反映了日本对威胁与不确定性的现实危机感以及借助同盟获得安全和地区影响力的意图。尽管同盟保持着稳定发展的趋势,但美国外交的不确定性、日美韩三边合作的脆弱性以及双边合作中的一些现实限制也构成了对同盟的新挑战。

The Japan-US alliance has undergone new changes. The fourth Armitage Report positions the alliance at the level of global cooperation and the alliance intends to act as global leadership. Meanwhile,Japan’s new national defense program guidelines have strengthened its links with the alliance. The alliance has placed its emphasis on the globalization,increasing the consensus and common interests in all areas of global security. At the regional level,the security networks among US allies in the Asia-Pacific is strengthened to consolidate the US military presence and increase the deterrence of the alliance system in regional security. At the bilateral level,the institutionalization process is promoting effectiveness of alliance. Although the alliance maintains a steady momentum,the uncertainty of Trump’s foreign policy and the vulnerability of the Japan-US-ROK trilateral security relations may affect the strengthening process of the alliance in the short term. At the same time,if alliance puts excessive attention on military factors,it may also result in security dilemma and increase the instability and uncertainty of the regional situation.