摘要
针对动态多属性风险型应急决策问题,提出了一种基于累积前景理论和直觉模糊数的动态决策方法。为保证评价信息的不确定性,采用直觉模糊数描述精确值、区间值、自然语言3种属性统一化后的信息;结合时间度,将多属性统一化的决策矩阵转化为关于期望的动态累积前景决策矩阵,依据各备选方案的综合累积前景值选择最佳的应急方案。以高层建筑火灾应急响应为例,通过案例分析结果表明此应急决策方法是可行和有效的。
Aiming at the dynamic multi-attribute risk emergency decision problem, a dynamic decision method based on cumulative foreground theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number is proposed. In order to ensure the uncertainty of the evaluation information, the intuitionistic fuzzy number is used to describe the information of the three values of the precise value, the interval value and the natural language. Combined with the time degree, the decision matrix of the unified multi- attribute is transformed into the expected dynamic cumulative foreground decision matrix. The best contingency plan is selected based on the comprehensive cumulative fore? ground value of each alternative. The case analysis of a high-rise building fire emergency response shows that the emergency decision method is feasible and effective.
作者
张志霞
薛莹
ZHANG Zhi-xia;XUE Ying(School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture andTechnology, Shaanxi Xi'an 710055, China)
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第4期552-556,共5页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61672416)
陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(2017JM7005)
关键词
累积前景理论
直觉模糊数
时间度
应急决策
cumulative prospect theory
intuitionistic fuzzy number
time degree
emergency decision
