金融结构、经济波动与经济增长——基于最优产业配置框架的分析

Financial Structure, Economic Growth and Volatility:A Framework of Optimal Industrial Portfolio

已有文献关于金融结构对经济发展的影响存在截然不同的观点和政策主张。本文在最优产业配置框架下,重新考察了金融结构对经济增长与波动的影响及其作用机制。通过将经济增长与波动之间的权衡问题转化为资源在产业间的配置问题,本文模型框架能够更好地探究金融结构对宏观经济的综合影响,并能够有效地解决潜在的内生性问题。利用OECD国家1970～2010年面板数据构建最优配置模型,本文实证分析发现,相比银行主导型金融结构,市场主导型金融结构能够更加有效地促进资源配置向最优配置状态收敛。进一步分析发现,外部资金依赖度高和中小成长型公司占比大的部门,在市场主导程度更高的金融系统中,向最优配置状态的收敛速度更快。在对金融结构内部进行更细致的考察中发现,银行业和股市内部结构特征也会对上述作用产生影响,银行业集中度越低、股市发展越有效率和活力,市场主导型金融结构越能够加速推动经济向最优配置前沿收敛。本文的研究结论为党的十九大报告提出的深化金融体制改革提供了理论支撑,特别是丰富了有关提高直接融资比重和促进多层次资本市场发展的内涵的讨论。

We revisit the effect of financial structure on economic growth and volatility under a framework of optimal industrial portfolio, which transfers the relationship between growth and volatility into a sectoral reallocation issue and addresses endogeneity concerns. By applying sectoral data of 26 OECD countries from 1970 to 2010, we construct an optimal benchmark allocation model that minimizes an economy’s volatility for given labor productivity growth. We find robust empirical evidence that a more market-based financial structure helps fasten the convergence towards the benchmark optimal sectoral allocation. Further analysis suggests that this effect is more likely to reallocate investment toward sectors consisting of firms depending more on external finance or sectors with a larger share of small and young firms.Conclusions drawn in this paper well survive endogeneity and robustness checks.