房价、劳动力成本与制造业区位布局:理论与证据

Housing prices,labor cost and location of manufacturing industry:theory and evidence

引入房价因素对新经济地理模型进行拓展,探讨房价变化对制造业区位布局的影响及其作用机理,结合1999—2016年我国30个省份面板数据,实证发现:房价可通过影响地区劳动力成本间接作用于制造业区位布局,且这种作用存在门槛效应。当房价低于门槛值时,劳动力成本对制造业布局无显著影响;当房价高于门槛值时,劳动力成本上升对制造业发展有显著的抑制作用。对不同技术水平制造业的进一步分析发现,现阶段房价经由劳动力成本对制造业的挤出作用只体现在中、低技术制造业,对高技术制造业的挤出效应暂未显现。这为我国部分制造业产业内迁和转移的成因提供了较好解释,也为各地构建房价调控和制造业发展政策提供重要启示。

By incorporating housing prices factor into the New Economic Geography( NEG) model,this paper analyzes the effects and mechanisms of how housing prices affect the location of manufacturing theoretically. Using 1999-2016 panel data of Chinese 30 provinces,the paper empirically tests the hypothesis proposed by the NEG extending model and finds that in general,the rise of housing prices will indirectly affect the location of manufacturing by affecting labor costs and this kind of influence has a nonlinear structure with the level of housing prices. The impact of housing prices level on the location of manufacturing has a significant single threshold pattern. When the price below the threshold value,labor cost has no significant effects on the development of manufacturing. When the housing prices rise above the threshold,labor cost will impose crowding-out effects on manufacturing development. The further study on the data of the high-tech manufacture industry shows that the crowding-out effects of housing price on manufacturing only show in the low-medium tech industry. For high-tech industry,the crowding-out effects have not yet appeared till now. This provides a good explanation for the causes of the inward migration and transfer of some manufacturing industries in China,and also provides important enlightenment for the construction of housing price control and manufacturing development policies in various regions.