房价上涨会抑制地区产业结构升级吗?

Does rising housing prices impede regional industrial upgrading?

利用2005年至2013年我国284个城市的非平衡面板数据,实证研究了房价上涨对产业结构升级的影响。研究发现,城市房价上涨显著抑制了该城市产业结构的升级。进一步地,影响机制分析发现,房价上涨通过导致产业间资源错配和挤占企业研发投入,进而不利于地区产业结构优化升级。之后还考虑了房价上涨对不同地区产业结构升级的异质性效应,发现房价上涨对地区产业结构升级的负面影响主要存在于东部和中部地区,其中东部地区所在城市房价上涨对当地产业结构升级的负面影响更为严重。最后为保证结论的稳健性,还进行了多方面的回归检验,结论仍然有效。研究结论对房价调控政策或深化房地产业市场化改革政策的制定,尤其是对推进地区产业结构优化升级具有重要的指导作用和深刻的现实意义。

Based on the panel data of 284 cities in China from 2005 to 2013,this paper empirically studies the impact of rising housing prices on regional industrial structure upgrading,and it finds that rising housing prices have a significant inhibitory effect on regional industrial structure upgrading. Further,through the impact mechanism analysis,it finds that the rising housing prices are not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure through the misallocation of resources between industries and the crowding out of enterprises’ research & development( R&D). Later,this paper also considers the heterogeneity effect of rising housing price on the upgrading of industrial structure in different regions,and finds that the negative effect of rising housing prices on the upgrading of regional industrial structure mainly exist in eastern and central regions,among which the negative effect of rising housing prices on the upgrading of industrial structure in eastern regions is more serious. Finally,a series of robustness tests are carried out,and the conclusion is still valid. The research conclusion of this paper has important guiding role and practical significance for the formulation of housing price regulation policy or the deepening of the market-oriented reform policy of real estate industry,especially for promoting the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure.