基于系统动力学的可再生能源投资风险评估

Renewable Energy Investment Risk Evaluation Model based on System Dynamics

采用系统动力学方法对可再生能源投资风险问题进行研究。首先讨论可再生能源投资的三大风险:技术风险、政策风险和市场风险,然后利用系统动力学方法建立投资风险的因果循环图和风险评估模型,并进行案例分析。结果表明,政策风险是影响早期开发阶段投资的主要因素,政策风险和技术风险会持续下降,市场风险逐渐成为影响成熟开发阶段投资的主要不确定性。冀构建的系统动力学模型可以帮助投资者在项目的早期阶段评估风险,并为投资者和政府提供决策参考。

In this paper,the risk of renewable energy investment is studied by means of system dynamics. Firstly,the three major risks of renewable energy investment are discussed: technology risk,policy risk and market risk. Then,the causal cycle diagram and risk assessment model of investment risk are established by using system dynamics method. And also,a case study is given. The results show that policy risk is the main factor affecting investment in the early stage of development. Policy risk and technology risk will continue to decline,and market risk will gradually become the main uncertainty affecting investment in the mature stage of development. The system dynamics model constructed here can help investors evaluate risks in the early stage of the project and provide decision-making reference for investors and governments.