区域金融风险部门间传染机理与实证分析

Inter-sectoral Contagion Mechanism of Regional Financial Risks and an Empirical Analysis

采用2005—2016年我国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,使用静态面板数据模型,对我国区域金融风险四部门间的传染机理进行实证研究。研究结果表明:在我国区域金融风险部门间传染的过程中,四部门之间存在着多条风险传染路径,金融部门在传染机理中处于核心地位,金融部门受其他部门的风险传染并且也影响其他部门;近年,家庭部门面临的风险增大,对其他部门风险传染的效应也较强,且家庭部门最易受其他部门的风险传染。

This paper uses panel data of 31 provinces(cities, districts) in China from 2005 to 2016 and adopts static panel data model to empirically study the risk contagion mechanism of regional financial risks among four sectors in China. An empirical study shows that there are many risk-contagion paths among the four sectors in the process of regional financial risk contagion in China. Among them, the financial sector is at the core of the contagion mechanism, which shows great liability of being affected as well as affecting other sectors. The risks faced by the family sector have increased in recent years, and the effects of risk transmission in other sectors have been strong, and the family sector is most vulnerable to risks from other sectors.