经济安全、高质量发展与水资源承载力关系研究

National Food Security,High-quality Economic Development and Water Resources Bearing Capacity

维护国家经济安全是我国发展的根本保障。国家粮食安全、能源安全、生态安全、产业安全关系到国家整体经济安全与经济高质量发展。这些发展背后都有水资源的支撑,都有水资源的纽带关系,保障这些安全都要符合区域水资源承载力的要求。本文以东北地区作为典型区,基于投入产出模型的结构分解方法分析国家经济安全、高质量发展与水资源承载力之间的关系。研究发现:经济高质量发展内涵下的产业结构优化调整以及技术进步和绿色发展,是突破水资源承载力的主要因素。黑龙江、吉林、辽宁这三个省份制造业结构总体上都不利于水资源承载力的增加。采掘业,电力热力、水的生产与供应业,建筑业、服务业内部的结构调整将有利于水资源承载力的增加。三次产业结构调整都有利于水资源承载力的提升。农业生产技术进步是农业用水减少的最主要驱动力。对于制造业来说,节水型技术进步是主要的驱动因素。也就是说,通过节水型技术进步,区域的水资源承载力增加。能源投入的技术进步是次要的驱动因素。黑龙江、吉林、辽宁需要转变制造业的发展方式,调整制造业内部的产业结构,以及制造业朝着价值链更高端的方向发展。

In this paper, Northeast China, which has a heavy task of ensuring national food security and high-quality development, is taken as a typical area. The relationship between national food security, high-quality development and water resources carrying capacity is analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis based on input-output model. According to the research, firstly,under the connotation of high-quality economic development, the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, technological progress and green development are the main factors to offset the disaster of breaking through the water resources carrying capacity caused by the increase of economic scale. At the same time, it is the main factor that has not broken through in carrying capacity of water resources in order to increase grain production. In general, the manufacturing structure of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces is not conducive to the increase of water resources carrying capacity. The structural adjustment in the mining industry, the production and supply of electric power, water, construction industry and service industry is basically conducive to the increase of water resources carrying capacity. Three industrial restructuring are conducive to the improvement of water resources carrying capacity. Agricultural production technology is the main driving force for the reduction of agricultural water use. Irrigation technology is the second major driving force for the reduction of agricultural water use. For manufacturing industry, water-saving technological progress is the main driving factor, that is to say, through water-saving technological progress, regional water resources carrying capacity increases. Technological progress in energy input is a secondary driver.Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning urgently need to change the development mode of manufacturing industry, adjust the industrial structure of manufacturing industry, and at the same time, the manufacturing industry is developing towards the higher end of the value chain.