中国粮食价格波动内在机理研究——基于供给侧改革背景下的分析

Grain Price Fluctuation Intrinsic Mechanism Analysis of China——Analysis Based on Background of Supply-sidetructural Reform

粮食价格形成机制改革是当前推动农业供给侧结构性改革的重要内容之一。研究粮食市场价格波动的内在机理有助于稳定粮食市场,保障粮食的有效供给。本文依据2001-2016年中国粮食价格及其影响因素的月度数据,运用主成分回归(PCR)、向量自回归(VAR)模型对中国粮食价格波动进行了敏感性、脉冲响应及贡献率分析。研究表明:粮食价格对汇率最为敏感,随后依次为生产成本、国际粮食价格及国际原油价格。粮食价格波动主要受其自身波动的冲击,生产成本、国际原油价格的增长率冲击对粮食价格波动具有显著的正向效应。为此,政府应采取多种措施,降低粮食生产成本;完善汇率制度,保持汇率稳定。

The reform of the grain price formation mechanism is one of the important contents to promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side. The internal mechanism of studying the price fluctuation of the grain market helps to stabilize the grain market and ensure the effective supply of grain. Based on the monthly data of China’s grain price and its influencing factors from 2001 to 2016, this paper uses principal component regression(PCR) and vector autoregressive(VAR) models to analyze the sensitivity, impulse response and contribution rate of China’s grain price fluctuations. Studies have shown that food prices are most sensitive to exchange rates, followed by production costs, international food prices and international crude oil prices. Food price volatility is mainly affected by its own volatility. The impact of production cost and international crude oil price growth rate has a significant positive effect on food price volatility. To this end, the government should take various measures to reduce the cost of food production;improve the exchange rate system and maintain exchange rate stability.