通货膨胀率与经济增长适度区间研究——基于GDP平减指数的分析

A Study on Inflation Rate and the Moderate Range of Economic Growth——Based on the Analysis of GDP Deflator Index

经济增长适度区间应当能够使通货膨胀率保持在合理范围,通货膨胀率是决定经济增长适度区间的重要因素,而通货膨胀率与经济增长率之间的关系也引起了越来越多的关注和重视。在回顾了近年来关于经济增长适度区间的研究后,本文认为从适度通货膨胀率这一角度探讨中国经济增长的适度区间有一定的研究价值。因此,本文选取2005年第3季度至2018年第4季度的数据为样本,利用附加了理性预期和适应性预期的产出-物价菲利普斯曲线模型实证检验了产出增长率缺口与通货膨胀率的联动关系。研究结果表明:通货膨胀预期与产出增长率缺口对通货膨胀的变动水平有着显著的正向影响。从系数的数值来看,通货膨胀惯性的影响最大,产出增长率缺口对当期通货膨胀水平也有较大的影响,而理性预期和适应性预期的影响则相对较小。此外,本文以产出增长率缺口与通货膨胀率联动关系为前提,在选取通货膨胀适度区间后,估算得出了基于适度通货膨胀率的经济增长适度区间。将本文估算得出的经济增长适度区间与我国经济发展的现实情况相比较后可以发现,本文对于产出-物价菲利普斯曲线的模型设定和参数估计有着较高的准确性,表明利用产出-物价菲利普斯曲线测算我国经济增长的适度区间是具有可行性的。

The moderate range of economic growth should keep the inflation rate in a reasonable range, so the inflation rate is an important factor determining the moderate range of economic growth. The relationship between inflation rate and economic growth rate has been paid more and more attention. After reviewing the recent studies on the moderate range of economic growth, this paper holds that it is of certain research value to discuss the moderate range of economic growth in China from the perspective of moderate inflation rate. Therefore, this paper chooses the data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2018 as samples, and uses the output-price Philips curve model with rational and adaptive expectations to empirically test the linkage between output growth gap and inflation rate.The results show that the gap between inflation expectation and output growth rate has a significant positive impact on the change of inflation level. From the numerical value of the coefficient, the inflationary inertia has the greatest impact, and the gap of output growth rate has a greater impact on the current inflation level, while the impact of rational expectation and adaptive expectation is relatively small. In addition, on the premise of the linkage relationship between output growth rate gap and inflation rate, after choosing the appropriate inflation interval, this paper estimates the appropriate economic growth range based on the moderate inflation rate. Comparing the moderate range of economic growth estimated in this paper with the actual situation of China’s economic development, we can find that the model setting and parameter estimation of output-price Phillips curve have high accuracy, which indicates that it is feasible to use output-price Phillips curve to estimate the moderate range of China’s economic growth.