住房价格与住房抵押贷款的相关性研究

On the Relationship between Housing Prices and Mortgage Loans

住房价格与住房抵押贷款的关系受到广泛关注。本文使用我国住房价格和商业银行的住房抵押贷款数据,利用两阶段最小二乘法/工具变量法(2SLS/Instrumental)对我国住房价格与住房抵押贷款之间的相互关系进行了研究。结论显示:我国商业银行住宅抵押贷款规模受到商品房平均价格和住宅平均价格的显著影响,银行净息差和存贷比的提高显著促进了银行抵押贷款发放。居民可支配收入成为推动房地产价格上涨的主要原因,尤其是对普通商品房和住宅类房产。在货币政策方面,住房贷款与存款准备金之间并没有显著的影响,但与银行利率呈现反向相关关系。因此,可以通过贷款利率水平来调节高端住房抵押贷款市场的规模,防范住房信贷的快速扩张。

In this paper we use the two stage lease squares/instrumental variables(2SLS/Instrumental) to investigate the relationship between housing prices and commercial mortgage loans of banks. The results indicate that the average condominium prices and residential prices have significant impact on the mortgage loans. Net Interest Margins(NIM) and loan-to-deposit ratio has positively raised the volume of commercial mortgage loans. The dispensable income is one of the most important factors to promote the increase of housing prices, especially in the condominium market and in the residential market. In terms of the monetary policy, the volume of mortgage loans has no direct relationship withrequired reserves. However, the results show a positive relationship between the volume of mortgage loans and interest rates. Therefore, the interest rate of the mortgage is an effective tool to adjust the volume of mortgage loans.