中国人口老龄化的空间网络结构及其影响因素——基于网络分析方法

The Spatial Network Structure of China’s Population Ageing and Its Influencing Factors——Based on Analytic Network Process

基于2006—2016年中国省际人口老龄化指标,通过格兰杰因果检验确定人口老龄化关系矩阵,然后构建人口老龄化空间关联网络,并从整体网络密度、中心性、块模型角度分析了人口老龄化空间特征,最后运用QAP方法考察了人口老龄化空间关联的影响因素。结果显示:(1)中国人口老龄化空间网络关联关系密切复杂且具有一定的稳定性;(2)人口老龄化空间关系主要呈现出以东北地区、中部地区、重庆为中心的网络特征;(3)人口出生率、城镇化率、人均GDP对人口老龄化的影响较大,其中,提高人口出生率可有效缓解人口老龄化压力。

Based on China's interprovincial population ageing indicators from 2006 to 2016,this paper got a population ageing relationship matrix through the Granger causality test and built a spatial association network of population ageing according to the matrix.Then the paper analyzed spatial characteristics of ageing from perspectives of network density,centrality and block models and analyzed the influencing factors of spatial association of population ageing through QAP.Results show that the association is close,complex and somewhat stable,and centers of the network are Northeast China,Central China and Chongqing.Besides,the birth rate,urbanization rate and per capita GDP have a relatively great impact on population ageing,and increasing birth rate can effectively alleviate the ageing pressure.