人口与经济协调发展的定量评判研究——以甘肃省为例

Quantitative Evaluation on Coordinated Development of Population and Economy:In the Case of Gansu Province

人口与经济的协调发展是实现经济增长向高质量阶段转变并有效解决当前各类人口问题的重要途径。以定量评价区域性人口与经济协调发展程度为目标,通过对协调和发展等概念进行描述解释,分别给出三种协调度、发展度以及协调发展度的计算模型,并利用K-均值聚类分析法做出评价标准,将人口与经济协调发展状况划分为三个层次共十八种基本类型。在此基础上,以甘肃省14个市州为评价对象,利用2012年至2016年的相关指标数据,对甘肃省各市州人口与经济协调发展状况进行实证分析,并对最终评价结果予以讨论和总结。

The coordinated development of the population and economy is an important path to transform the economic development to a high-quality stage and effectively solve the current population problems.Aiming to quantitatively evaluate the coordinated development of regional population and economy,this study offers three calculation models of coordinated degree,development degree and coordinated development degree by describing and interpreting such concepts as coordination and development,adopts K-means clustering analysis method to set evaluation criteria,and divides the coordinated development of the population and economy into eighteen basic types of three levels.On this basis,the study takes 14 cities and autonomous prefectures in Gansu Province as the evaluation objects,utilizes the relevant index data from 2012 to 2016 to conduct an empirical analysis of the coordinated development of the population and economy in the cities and prefectures,and discusses and summarizes the final evaluation results.