基于系统动力学方法的大型建筑企业项目群承建风险作用研究

Research on the Role of Risk in Large-Scale Construction Company Program Contracting Based on System Dynamics

项目群管理模式的涌现表明该模式能够给大型建筑企业提供更多的成长动力,而项目群承建过程中的风险因素能够通过影响项目群承建目标的达成进而影响企业成长。界定项目群概念并将项目群按照类型划分为同质项目群及异质项目,基于复杂系统理论提出项目群承建风险对企业不同成长阶段作用的研究范式。识别同质项目群风险因素,利用系统动力学思想分析风险因素因果关系。结合企业成长阶段和项目群承建风险因素并绘制风险因素系统对企业成长系统作用概念图,据此选择企业高速成长期进行同质项目群承建风险作用研究,建立系统动力学流图并利用Vensim软件进行仿真模拟应用,得出仿真结论的同时验证了范式的可操作性,为企业承揽项目群、管理项目群风险提供理论依据和模型参考。

The emergence of the program management model shows that it can provide large-scale construction companies with more growth momentum,and the risk factors in large-scale construction company program contracting can affect the realization of goals in program contracting and then they have an impact on the growth of companies.Firstly,in this paper we defined the concept of the program and divided the program into two types:homogeneous program and heterogeneous project,and proposed a research paradigm for the role of program contracting risk in different growth stages of the company based on the complex system theory.And then,we identified the risk factors of homogenous program and used system dynamics theory to analyze the causality of these factors.Finally,in conjunction with the company’s growth stage and risk factors of program contracting,we have drawn a conceptual diagram of the effects of the risk factors system to the company’s growth system.And based on this,we selected the high-speed growth period of the company to study the risk effect of homogeneous program contracting,established a system dynamics flow map as well as performed a simulation via Vensim.At the end of this paper,we obtained the simulation results while the operability of the paradigm is also validated,and all of these can provide theoretical basis and model reference for companies to contract program and manage program risks.