中国经济高质量发展的分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of High Quality Growth in China's Economy

本文从定量的角度出发,以经济增长面和社会成果面两个维度构建与经济增长相关的基础指标,采用主成分分析方法确定各指标的权重以降低主观影响,计算经济高质量发展指标指数。发现中国经济质量发展经历了4个周期,且创新对经济增长质量贡献最大,对外开放贡献最小。以劳动生产率为尺衡量经济高质量增长速度,预测经济高质量发展的速度。运用灰色预测模型对接下来三年的劳动生产率进行预测,发现中国经济质量呈现上升趋势,确定当前发展方向的正确性。

This paper,from the perspective of quantitative analysis,builds basic indexes related to economic growth in two dimensions:economic growth and social outcomes,and applies principal component analysis to determine the weight of each index to reduce the subjective impact and then to calculate the index of high quality economic development.It is found that China's economic quality development has gone through four cycles, and innovation contributes the most to the quality of economic growth, while the opening up policy does the least.The paper uses labor productivity to measure the rate of high-quality economic growth and predict the speed of high-quality economic development.In this paper,the grey forecasting model is applied to predict the labor productivity for the next three years,and it is found that China's economic quality is on an upward trend,so the correct direction of the current development is confirmed.