新时代下我国粮食产量的影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in China in the New Era

稳定粮食产量,助力农户增收,为实现产业兴旺、乡村振兴打下基础。利用协整方法分析了粮食产量与各影响因素之间有协整关系并存在长期稳定的趋势。研究发现,粮食产值与粮食播种面积、化肥施用量以及有效灌溉面积之间存在着长期均衡关系,在其他条件保持不变的情况下粮食播种面积、化肥施用量以及有效灌溉面积每增加1%,粮食产量增加1.311058%、0.202268%、0.501729%。最后,由实证分析结果提出粮食增产的对策措施。

Stabilizing grain production and raising farmers’ income are helpful to the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. The Cointegration method is used to analyze the existence of cointegration between the respective variables and the due variables and has a long-term stable relationship. The study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between grain yield and grain sowing area,fertilizer application amount and effective irrigation area, and every 1% increase in grain sowing area, fertilizer application amount and effective irrigation area under other conditions remains unchanged, the grain yield increases by 1.311058%, 0.202268%, 0.501729%.Finally, according to the results of co-integration analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to increase grain yield.