管理层盈余预测对会计稳健性的影响研究

Research on the impact of management earnings forecast on accounting conservatism

为了研究管理层盈余预测与会计稳健性之间的关系,在梳理现有国内外有关管理层盈余预测与会计稳健性相关文献的基础上,通过分析归纳,提出了披露、自愿披露和披露"好消息"管理层盈余预测与会计稳健性关系的假设,细化了管理层盈余预测对会计稳健性影响研究。为验证上述假设,以Basu模型为基础,构建了多元回归模型,使用2013—2017年沪、深两市A股上市公司数据,实证检验了管理层盈余预测对会计稳健性的影响。结果表明:披露管理层盈余预测公司的会计稳健性显著降低;自愿披露管理层盈余预测比强制披露管理层盈余预测更能显著降低会计稳健性;"好消息"管理层盈余预测比"坏消息"管理层盈余预测更能降低会计稳健性。研究结果对完善中国管理层盈余预测制度、加强"坏消息"管理层盈余预测披露管理具有借鉴意义。

In order to study the relationship between management earnings forecast and accounting conservatism, based on the analysis of existing domestic and foreign literatures related to management earnings forecast and accounting conservatism, the hypothesis is proposed between disclosure, voluntary disclosure and disclosure of "good news" management earnings forecast and accounting conservatism, detailing the influence research of management earnings forecast on accounting conservation. In order to verify the above hypothesis, a multiple regression model is built based on the Basu model. The data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2017 are used to empirically test the impact of management earnings forecast on accounting conservatism. The results show that the accounting conservatism of the company disclosing the earnings forecast of the management is significantly reduced;voluntary disclosure of management earnings forecast can significantly reduce accounting conservatism than mandatory disclosure of management earnings forecast;and the "good news" management earnings forecast can reduce the accounting conservatism more than the "bad news" management earnings forecast.The results of this study can be used for reference to improve the management earnings forecast system and strengthen the disclosure management of "bad news" management earnings forecast.