安徽绿色经济发展系统动力学模型及政策仿真

System Dynamics Model and Policy Simulation of Green Economy Development in Anhui Province

文章以安徽绿色发展的节能减排系统为研究对象,运用系统动力学模型,对财政、税收、金融、环保、产业与科技六类政策不同情境下节能减排绩效进行仿真模拟,并对不同政策组合情境下的节能减排绩效进行比较。研究发现:在六类政策中,税收和环保政策的效果最为显著,财政和产业政策次之,科技和金融政策节能减排效果最弱;与单一政策相比,节能减排政策组合实施的效果最优。据此,提出节能减排政策优化的相关建议。

This paper takes Anhui’s energy saving and emission reduction system of green development as the research object, and uses the system dynamics model to simulate the performance of energy saving and emission reduction under different situa tions of fiscal, tax, financial, environmental protection, industrial and technological policies, and compare the performance of energy saving and emission reduction under different policy combinations. The result shows: Among the six types of policies, the effects of taxation and environmental protection policies are the most significant, followed by fiscal and industrial policies, and science and technology and financial policies are the weakest;Compared with a single policy, the combination of energy conservation and emission reduction policies has the best effect. Accordingly, some suggestions on the optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction policies are proposed.