住房公积金与城城流动人口的留城意愿——基于2016年流动人口动态监测调查的实证研究

Housing Provident Fund and Urban-to-urban Floating Population’s Willingness to Stay in Cities——An Empirical Analysis with a Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Population in 2016

文章利用2016年流动人口动态监测调查数据,研究了住房公积金对城城流动人口留城意愿的影响,研究得出:参与住房公积金缴纳会增强城城流动人口的留城意愿,加入控制变量与虚拟变量以后,结果依然是成立。文章进一步选用倾向匹配得分法纠正了样本选择上可能存在的偏误,利用含内生变量的probit模型控制可能存在的内生性问题,并验证了结论的稳健性。分样本进行研究得到:缴纳住房公积金对于80后与90后及在本地流动时间长达五年的城城流动人留城意愿的影响作用更大;住房公积金的缴纳对于本地没有住房的城城流动人口的留城意愿有显著的促进作用,但对本地有房的人口的影响作用不显著。

Using the dynamic monitoring survey data of floating population in 2016,this article examines the impact of housing provident fund on the urban-to-urban floating population’s willingness to stay in cities. The study shows that housing provi dent fund significantly increases urban-to-urban floating population’s willingness in this city. This result is still valid when control variables and regional dummy variables are added. Furthermore,the study corrects the possible selection bias by using the propensity score matching method,controls the potential endogenous problem with the IV probit model,and verifies the ro bustness of the conclusion. The sub sample results also show that housing provident fund has more obvious influence on the willingness of the post-80s and 90s urban-to-urban floating population’s and those who stay in cities for more than 5 years. Besides,for those urban-to-urban floating population without house in this city,housing provident fund significantly increases their willingness in this city,but the effect isn’tsignificant for those who have house in this floating city.