东南亚地区城市扩张及驱动力分析

An analysis of urban expansion and its driving forces of Southeast Asia

针对东南亚地区城市化发展现状及城市扩张关联驱动要素的问题,该文通过提取研究地区城市主体建成区和不透水面,分析其城市扩张特征,然后从城市不透水面、城市人口和国内生产总值(GDP)3个方面,探讨2010—2015年6年中东南亚地区城市扩张状况,并对其城市扩张驱动力进行分析。研究结果表明:城市扩展强度与城市不透水面变化强度、城市人口增长率和人均GDP年增长率均具有显著相关性,相关系数分别为0.902、0.747和0.700,表明城市不透水面的增加、城市人口增长和经济水平提升均不同程度地影响东南亚地区城市扩张及其强度。通过对模型精度进行验证和分析得出多因子定量回归模型精度相对较高,说明结合多个城市扩张驱动因子共同衡量城市扩张变化效果更好。

With consideration of the current status of urbanization and the associated driving forces of urban expansion in Southeast Asia,this paper analyzed the characteristics of urban expansion by extracting the main built-up area and impervious surface of study area,then analyzed the correlation of urban expansion driving forces from three aspects include the impervious surface,urban population and gross domestic product(GDP),and then discussed the conditions of the urban expansion and analyzed its driving forces in the Southeast Asia from 2010to 2015.The results showed that the urban expansion intensity(UEI)had a strong correlation with the impervious surface expansion intensity(ISEI),the growth rate of urban population and the growth rate of the per capita gross domestic product,the correlation coefficient are 0.902,0.747and 0.700,respectively,the results indicated that the increase of impervious surface,the growth of population and the improvement of economic development level could facilitate the urban expansion in varying degrees.Through validation and further analysis showed that the multiple factors quantitative regression model was of high precision,illustrates that the combination of multiple urban expansion driving factors to measure urban expansion was more effective.