摘要
为探讨圆形分布法在分析我国流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)、登革热及疟疾等3种蚊媒传染病季节特征方面应用的可行性,本研究采用圆形分布法对2005年至2017年间全国的乙型脑炎、登革热、疟疾的发病情况进行了整理分析,并用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)验证。圆形分布法分析结果表明,乙脑、登革热、疟疾的预测发病高峰日分别为8月15日、10月5日和8月26日,高峰时期分别为7月11日至9月20日、9月9日至11月1日和6月12日至11月8日,ARIMA模型得到类似结果。因此,圆形分布法简单实用,对3种蚊媒传播疾病的防控具有较强的实用价值,从而为完善我国传染病的监测和防治工作提供参考依据。
In order to explore the seasonal characteristics of mosquito-borne infectious diseases such as Japanese encephalitis,dengue fever and malaria,circular distribution and autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) were employed to analyze their incidences in China from 2005 to 2017.The results of circular distribution analysis showed that the peak days of Japanese encephalitis,dengue and malaria were respectively August 15th,October 5th and August 26th,and the high-incidence periods were respectively during July 11th to September 20th,September 9th to November 1st and June 12th to November 8th.Similar consequences were obtained by ARIMA model.Therefore,circular distribution analysis is simple,practical and valuable for the control and prevention of the three mosquito-borne infectious diseases,thus providing a reference for improving the monitoring and prevention of infectious diseases in China.
作者
何业计
闫清源
尔夏提江.阿迪力江
崔立
HE Ye-ji;YAN Qing-yuan;Erxat Adil;CUI Li(Shanghai Key Laboratory of Veterinary Biotechnology,School of Agriculture and Biology,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《上海交通大学学报（农业科学版）》
2019年第2期14-18,共5页
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Agricultural Science)
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1200202)
第17期上海交通大学大学生创新实践计划(IPP17100)
