人民币国际化的“困”与“解”:从央行政策行为透视改革思路

The "Difficulties" and "Solutions" of the Internationalization of the RMB: Perspectives on Reform Ideas from the Policy Behavior of the Central Bank

如何理性看待人民币国际化及其面临的现实之"困"是当前国际金融领域关注的焦点。本文基于纵向和横向两个层面,从跨境人民币指数(CRI)和离岸人民指数(ORI),以及人民币在国际支付全球市场份额与排名、国际储备占比和计价债券占比等指标对人民币国际化的现实状况进行了考量,发现人民币国际化取得了显著的成效,但相较于美元、欧元的国际化程度仍相距甚远。基于当前人民币国际化面临的主要障碍及央行对我国人民币国际化的政策行为及效应分析,本文从央行政策微调维护汇率稳定、加强金融基础设施和市场建设、资本账户开放,以及人民币"区域化"到"国际化"战略实施方面提出了人民币国际化改革再启程的政策建议。

How to rationally treat the internationalization of the RMB and the“difficulties”of the reality it faces is the focus of current international financial field. This paper is based on the vertical and horizontal dimensions, studies the reality of the internationalization of the RMB from indexes including the cross-border RMB index (CRI) and the offshore people index (ORI), the RMB's global market share and ranking in international payments, the pro. portion of international reserves, as well as the proportion of denominated bonds. It is found that the internationaliza. tion of the RMB has achieved remarkable results, but it is still far from the internationalization of the US dollar and the euro. Based on the main obstacles faced by the current internationalization of the RMB and the central bank’s in. tervention and effect analysis on China’s RMB internationalization, this paper puts forward the policy recommenda. tions for the reform of the internationalization of the RMB from the appropriate intervention of the central bank to maintain exchange rate stability, strengthen financial infrastructure and market construction, capital account open. ing, and the implementation of the“regionalization”to“internationalization”strategy.