非利息收入对商业银行绩效影响的门限回归分析

Threshold Regression Analysis of the Impact of Non-Interest Income on the Performance of Commercial Banks

[目的/意义]增加非利息收入在为商业银行传统信贷业务带来新的收益增长的同时,因其业务种类及经营方式的差别又使得商业银行的经营管理难度加大。因此,有必要研究非利息收入对商业银行绩效的影响。[方法/过程]在总结国内外相关文献和理论的基础上,以2008—2016年我国26家商业银行(16家上市商行和10家有代表性的非上市商行)的非利息收入占比及结构为研究对象,采用门限回归模型就非利息收入对银行绩效的非线性影响进行了实证研究。[结果/结论]结果表明:非利息收入与银行绩效间存在非线性的关系,在以银行资产规模作为门限变量时,存在三重门限值;在每一个区间,非利息收入对银行绩效的影响并不相同;以非利息收入各组成部分作为门限变量时,各组成部分对银行绩效的影响各不相同。基于上述结果,本文从微观角度提出了不同资产规模的银行各自的发展策略。

[Purpose/Significance]The growth of non-interest income has brought new revenue growth for traditional credit business of commercial banks.At the same time,because of the differences in business types and operation modes,it makes the operation and management of commercial banks more difficult.[Method/Process]In view of the impact of non-interest income on bank performance,based on the summary of relevant literature and theory at home and abroad,this paper empirically studies the non-linear impact of non-interest income on bank performance by using threshold regression model through the proportion and structure of non-interest income of 26 commercial banks(16 listed banks and 10 typical non-listed banks)in China from 2008 to 2016.[Result/Conclusion]The results show that there is a non-linear relationship between non-interest income and bank performance.When the size of bank assets is taken as a threshold variable,there is a triple threshold value.In every section,the impact of non-interest income on bank performance is not the same;when each component of non-interest income is taken as a threshold variable,the impact of each component is different.Based on the above results,this paper puts forwarddevelopment strategies of banks under different asset sizes from a micro perspective.