竞争导向的美国对华政策与中美关系转型

Competition-Oriented US Policy toward China and Transformation of China-US Relations

特朗普政府全面开展对华竞争,谋求在高新技术和国防产业链上与中国脱钩,对中国机构和个人在美国的活动施加越来越严格的限制,在经济、安全、外交等领域对华施压。上述政策造成两国关系氛围恶化,战略互信受损,结构性矛盾突出,中美关系从合作与竞争并存模式转向竞争主导型模式,双边关系缩水,在多边机制中的分歧和摩擦加剧。展望未来,中美关系在短期内依然形势严峻,面临前所未有的挑战;但从长远看来,中美关系走向存在多种可能,其一方面取决于美国内部各派的博弈,另一方面更取决于中国的应对。塑造推进务实合作和建设性竞争、有效管控风险、防范重大冲突的中美关系,仍是中国对美外交的基本方向。

The Donald Trump administration is engaging in an all-out competition with China, seeking decoupling from China in hi-tech and national defense supply chain, imposing increasingly harsh restrictions on the activities of Chinese institutions and individuals within the US, and ramping up pressure on China in economic, security, diplomatic and other areas. These policies have worsened the bilateral relations, hurt mutual strategic trust, and highlighted structural conflict. Shifting from a model featuring coexistence between cooperation and competition to a model dominated by competition, the two countries are witnessing a contraction in bilateral relations as well as heightened disputes and frictions in multilateral mechanisms. Looking into the future, China-US relations are expected to face difficulties in the short run and confront unprecedented challenges;but in the long run, China-US relations have several possible trajectories, which not only depends on the power games among various factions within the US but also on China’s responses. China’s diplomatic policy toward the US would still be to shape and promote pragmatic cooperation and constructive competition, effective risk control, and the prevention of major conflicts in the China-US relations.