河北省粮食产量趋势性的影响因素定量研究

Quantitative Study on Effecting Factors of Grain Output Tendency in Hebei Province

[目的]对河北省粮食产量趋势性影响因素进行定量研究,为保障国家粮食安全提供科学支撑。[方法]运用EMD方法提取河北省1978—2015年粮食产量趋势量,利用C-D生产函数与全要素生产率(TFP)对该省的粮食产量影响因素进行定量化研究。[结果]河北省粮食总产发展趋势呈现明显的阶段性:快速增长,缓慢发展,停滞不前甚至下降3个阶段;各投入要素对河北省粮食总产趋势增长的贡献率依次为:粮食作物播种面积(51.99%)>有效灌溉面积(38.68%)>科技进步(12.73%)>农林牧渔业劳动力(-2.86%)>支持农业生产和事业支出(-0.55%)。[结论]粮食作物播种面积、有效灌溉面积和科技进步是促进河北省粮食总产增长的3个主要因素。

[Objective]The development trend and main influencing factors of grain output in Hebei Province was studied in order to provide scientific basis for guaranteeing the grain security of China.[Methods]The trend of grain yield in Hebei Province from 1978 to 2015 was extracted by EMD method.The influencing factors of grain yield in Hebei Province were quantitatively studied by C-D production function and total factor productivity(TFP).[Results]The grain total output of Hebei Province displayed obvious gradualness.In details,it contained rapid increase stage,slow development stage and stagnation or even decline stage,respectively.For the grain yield influencing factors,their rank of contribution was:the planting area(51.99%)>the effective irrigated area(38.68%)>the scientific and technological progress(12.73%)>the agriculture forestry animal husbandry and fishery labor force(-2.86%)>the government expenditure on agricultural production and undertakings(-0.55%).[Conclusion]The main influencing factors to promote the growth of grain output of Hebei Province are the planting area,the effective irrigated area and the scientific and technological progress.