金融冲击、冲击叠加与货币政策效果

Financial Shock,Shock Superposition and Monetary Policy Effect

金融冲击是引起宏观经济波动的重要因素之一,本文采用冲击叠加的研究方法,将异质性行为人、认知局限假设和金融冲击引入动态随机一般均衡模型的分析框架,分析不同货币政策参数设定结构下金融冲击的短期效应,探索应对金融冲击的合意货币政策。研究表明:注重调控产出波动的货币政策具有较高有效性,但对产出波动的过度平抑反而会削弱货币政策对金融市场冲击的调控效果,注重调控通货膨胀波动会引发受担保中间部门的产出和总产出在施行货币政策后出现持续、显著的波动。因此,我国的货币政策应采用适度调控总产出的策略应对金融冲击,同时应减弱金融冲击发生后对通货膨胀目标的关注,以达到减弱金融冲击短期效应,平抑宏观经济波动的目的。

Financial shocks is one of the important factors that cause macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper introduces heterogeneous actors, cognitive limitation hypothesis and financial shocks into the analysis framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, analyzes the short-term effects of financial shocks under different setting structures of monetary policy parameters, and explores a suitable monetary policy to deal with financial shocks.The results show that the monetary policy focusing on controlling output fluctuations is more effective, but the excessive suppression of output fluctuations will weaken the effect of monetary policy on financial market shocks, and the emphasis on controlling inflation fluctuations will cause sustained and significant fluctuations in the output and total output of the guaranteed intermediate sector after the implementation of monetary policy.Therefore, China′s monetary policy should adopt the strategy of moderate regulation and control of total output to deal with financial shocks, and at the same time, it should reduce the concern of inflation target after financial shocks, in order to reduce the short-term effect of financial shocks and suppress macroeconomic fluctuations.