CEPA对粤澳服务贸易量影响及政策建议

The Impact of CEPA on the Service Trade Volume of Guangdong and Macao and Corresponding Policy Suggestions

CEPA对澳门和广东的服务贸易会产生重大影响,迫切需要对此自由化效应进行详尽的理论分析。引入双向贸易指标和引力模型,通过间接的方法估算CEPA对两地的服务贸易额的影响,估算数据支持了两地的服务贸易自由化对两地是双赢的结论,为实施粤澳服务贸易自由化这一政策决策的正确性提供理论依据,最后从中央政府、广东省政府和澳门特区政府三个层次提出相关政策建议。

CEPA will greatly affect the service trade of Guangdong and Macao,and a thorough theoretical analysis of liberation effect is urgently needed. The two-way trade indicators and gravity model are introduced to assess the impact of CEPA on the two regions’service trade volume,and the assessment data support the view that free service trade is beneficial for both of them,which provides theoretical basis fo this policy. Finally,this study makes policy suggestions on the levels of central government,Guangdong provincial government,and Macao SAR government.