贵州玉舍冬季滑雪气象指数等级制订

Forecast of Ski Weather Index Grade for Guizhou Yushe Ski Resort

运用1988~2017年贵州省玉舍滑雪场附近30年气候资料和2015~2016年冬季滑雪场客流量资料,分析贵州高海拔地区滑雪运动与气象条件的关系,进而进行滑雪气象指数等级研究。结果表明:(1)玉舍滑雪场冬季具有少雨、低风、温度适宜的气候特点,可以开展滑雪运动。(2)玉舍的滑雪人数与气象因子风速、气温、相对湿度、降水量呈显著反相关。(3)根据玉舍滑雪场气候背景特征,分别对降水量、相对湿度、舒适度指数三个气象要素进行分级,通过实际滑雪人数分级与滑雪气象指数等级预报进行的检验表明:实际滑雪气象指数等级与指数预报等级相同(即绝对值之差为0)的准确率达26.4%,实际滑雪气象指数等级与指数预报等级绝对值之差为1的准确率达66.7%,即预报滑雪气象指数等级与实际滑雪气象指数等级之差≥1的准确率达93%。

In this paper, based on the climatic data of 30 years near Yushe ski resort in Guizhou Province from 1988 to 2017, the passenger flow data of winter ski resort from 2015 to 2016. Analysis of the Relation between Skiing and Meteorological Conditions in High Altitude Areas of Guizhou Province. Then the skiing meteorological index is classified. The results show that:(1) Yushe Skiing Ground has the characteristics of less rain, low wind and suitable temperature in winter, so it can carry out skiing.(2) The statistics show that the number of skiers in Yushe is significantly inversely correlated with wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation.(3)According to the Climate background characteristics of Yushe Skiing Ground, classification is made according to three meteorological factors of precipitation, relative humidity and comfort index. The test results of actual skiing population classification and skiing meteorological index forecast grade show that: The accuracy of the actual skiing meteorological grade is the same as that of the index forecast grade, the accuracy of the actual skiing meteorological grade and the index forecast grade is 66.7%, so, the accuracy of the forecast skiing meteorological index grade and the actual skiing meteorological index grade is greater than or equal to 1 is 93%.